Read on France 24Syrian Army Advances North: The End of Kurdish Autonomy and Shifting US Alliances
The Syrian military's recent advance into northern Syria marks a pivotal moment in the country's long-running conflict. According to Middle East expert Joshua Landis, the primary objective is to dismantle the autonomous administration established by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This offensive signifies a dramatic reversal for the Kurdish community, which had carved out significant self-rule with US backing. The unfolding situation also raises critical questions about America's strategic calculus, as it appears to be withdrawing support from its former Kurdish allies, leaving them vulnerable to Syrian government forces. This analysis explores the motivations behind the Syrian army's push and the geopolitical implications of the shifting US stance.
The landscape of the Syrian conflict is undergoing a significant and potentially decisive shift. Following years of relative stability in the northeast, the Syrian Arab Army has launched a major advance across the country's north. According to analysis by Joshua Landis, director of the University of Oklahoma's Centre for Middle East Studies, this military operation has a clear strategic goal: to terminate the years of de facto autonomy secured by Syria's Kurdish community and reassert the central government's control over its entire territory.
The Strategic Objective: Reclaiming Sovereignty
The primary target of the Syrian military's campaign is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia alliance that has been the United States' principal ground partner in the fight against the Islamic State group. With ISIS largely defeated, the raison d'être for the US-Kurdish partnership has diminished in the eyes of the Syrian government and its allies. Landis argues that the Syrian regime views the SDF not as a temporary security partner but as a secessionist force that has established a state-within-a-state. The autonomy enjoyed by the Kurdish administration in regions like Raqqa and parts of Deir ez-Zor is seen in Damascus as an existential threat to national unity and sovereignty. The current offensive is therefore a calculated move to dismantle this autonomous structure and reintegrate the territory under the authority of President Bashar al-Assad's government.
The Kurdish Dilemma: From US Allies to Abandoned Partners
For the Kurdish community, this represents a dramatic reversal of fortune. Having borne the brunt of the ground war against ISIS with critical US air support, the Kurds established a sophisticated self-governing entity, often referred to as Rojava. This autonomy was hard-won and represented a significant political achievement. However, their reliance on US protection created a precarious dependency. As Landis notes, the US now appears to be abandoning its former allies. This shift leaves the Kurdish forces in an untenable position, caught between a hostile Syrian army intent on reclaiming their land and a retreating American patron. The withdrawal of US support signals a stark realignment of priorities, where broader geopolitical deals or a desire to reduce Middle East entanglements may be superseding previous commitments to the Kurds.
Geopolitical Implications and the Future of Northern Syria
The clashes between the Syrian army and Kurdish forces are more than a local conflict; they are a microcosm of the region's complex power struggles. The Syrian regime's advance is likely being conducted with the tacit or explicit approval of Russia, its main international backer, which may view a stabilized, unified Syria under Assad as preferable to a fractured state. For the United States, the apparent abandonment of the Kurds risks damaging its credibility with future local partners and reflects the unpredictable nature of its foreign policy. The outcome of this offensive will reshape the political map of Syria, potentially ending one of the most ambitious experiments in Kurdish self-rule in recent history and consolidating the Assad government's victory in the civil war, albeit over a devastated and divided country.
