The Shifting Landscape of Global Science: China's Rise and America's Decline

The global map of scientific influence is being redrawn. According to a comprehensive analysis by analytics firm Clarivate, based on a quarter-century of Web of Science citation data, China is emerging as the dominant force in world science, while the United States is losing its long-held position as the preeminent research powerhouse. This shift, driven by changing collaboration patterns and domestic policy landscapes, signals a profound transformation with significant implications for innovation, economic competitiveness, and global knowledge production.

The Data: A Quarter-Century of Citation Trends

The analysis, published in Nature, leverages extensive data from the Web of Science to track the ebb and flow of international research influence. A key finding is that papers produced by international collaborations consistently receive higher citations than domestic studies, underscoring the value of global scientific partnerships. For decades, the United States was the central node in this network, but the data now shows a clear and accelerating shift.

China's Ascendancy in Global Research

China's trajectory is one of remarkable and sustained growth. The country surpassed the United States as the largest producer of research papers in 2020 and is now on the cusp of leading in citation impact—a key measure of a paper's influence and quality. Domestically, China's research output has more than doubled over the past decade. Internationally, despite a brief pandemic dip, its collaborations with partners worldwide—and particularly in Europe—continue to rise sharply.

This expansion is not limited to traditional partners. China is actively building new scientific bridges into emerging research regions across Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. As Jonathan Adams, chief scientist at Clarivate’s Institute of Scientific Information, notes, the expectation of perpetual U.S. leadership is no longer valid. The balance of power in global science is fundamentally changing.

The United States: A Power in Decline

In contrast, the United States presents a picture of stagnation and decline. U.S. research output has not recovered from a widespread dip during the COVID-19 pandemic, and more troublingly, the analysis suggests deeper, longer-term issues. The citation impact of U.S. domestic research has been on a steady downward trajectory for decades as other nations have improved, with the rate of decline accelerating notably since around 2018.

A critical vulnerability is the fraying of the U.S.-China research partnership. Collaborations between the two nations, which have been a significant source of the United States' overall citation impact, began to level off and decline around 2019. Researchers attribute this to a combination of China's increased focus on building domestic scientific capacity and a U.S. crackdown on alleged academic espionage during the first Trump administration.

The Consequences of Policy and a New Collaboration Map

The analysis sounds a clear warning about the consequences of recent U.S. policy. The administration of former President Donald Trump enacted measures that cut grant funding, sought to restrict foreign student numbers, and undermined research in critical areas like vaccines and climate change. These actions have contributed to the nation's scientific retreat.

As U.S.-China ties weaken, Europe is stepping into the void. Collaborations between China and the European Union have continued to rise and are now on par with those between the United States and the EU in terms of citation impact. This reconfiguration suggests a new multipolar model for global science, with China and Europe forming a powerful axis of collaboration.

Looking Ahead: Implications for Global Science

The decline of U.S. scientific leadership is not just an academic concern. As Adams points out, it has direct implications for wealth creation and quality of life within the United States. For the rest of the world, the rise of China offers new partnership opportunities but also raises questions about the concentration of scientific influence and the potential for new geopolitical tensions within research ecosystems.

The overarching trend, however, remains positive for science itself: international research collaborations continue to rise globally, and these partnerships produce the highest-impact work. The challenge for nations will be to navigate this new landscape, fostering open collaboration while managing strategic competition, to ensure that the global scientific enterprise continues to drive human progress forward.