Read on foxsports.com2026 World Cup Futures: Why Team USA Is a Growing Liability for Sportsbooks
With the 2026 FIFA World Cup on home soil, Team USA has become a significant liability for sportsbooks. Despite long odds of +5000, patriotic betting is driving public money toward the U.S. men's national team. Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike sheds light on the dynamics, while France and Spain emerge as co-favorites at +450. This analysis explores the betting landscape, key contenders like England, Argentina, and dark horses such as Mexico, Egypt, and Iran, offering a comprehensive look at what to expect when the tournament kicks off June 11.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is just around the corner, and while the U.S. men's national team may not be among the favorites to lift the trophy, they have become a significant liability for sportsbooks. According to a recent report by Patrick Everson on FOX Sports, patriotic betting from the public is driving action toward the Americans, despite long odds of +5000. This phenomenon highlights the unique dynamics of a World Cup hosted on home soil, where fan enthusiasm can outweigh statistical probability.
Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike explains that while the U.S. isn't the most-wagered team—that honor goes to co-favorites France and Spain at +450—the Americans' 50/1 odds mean that even modest betting volumes create outsized liability. "The U.S. isn’t our most-wagered selection. That would be France and Spain," Bickerdike said. "But with the USA being a sizable price, that’s why they’re our biggest liability." This is a classic example of how sportsbook risk management works: long shots require fewer bets to pose a financial threat if they win.
Understanding the Betting Landscape
The 2026 World Cup features a new format with 48 teams, expanding from the traditional 32. This change has introduced more opportunities for betting, but also more complexity for oddsmakers. The U.S. is in Group D, where they are +140 favorites to win that group, but the path to the championship is daunting. Bickerdike is optimistic about the team's chances of reaching the Round of 16, but he stops short of predicting a deep run. "I’m optimistic that the USA has an excellent chance of getting to the Round of 16," he said, citing manager Mauricio Pochettino and star player Christian Pulisic as key factors.
The French and Spanish squads, both at +450, are the clear co-favorites. Spain's Euro 2024 victory and France's back-to-back World Cup final appearances (winning in 2018 and losing in 2022) make them formidable contenders. England, at +725, is the third choice, while defending champion Argentina and Portugal are tied at +900. The betting public has shown strong interest in these top teams, with France and Spain drawing the most tickets and money.
The Patriotic Play
The surge in U.S. betting is not just about winning—it's about emotion. Hosting the World Cup generates a wave of national pride, and fans are eager to back their team, even if the odds are long. This "patriotic play" is a well-known phenomenon in sports betting, often seen in events like the Olympics or when the host nation is a dark horse. For sportsbooks, it's a calculated risk: they offer long odds to attract bets, knowing the probability of a U.S. victory is low, but they must also hedge against the unlikely scenario of a run to the title.
Key Contenders and Dark Horses
Beyond the favorites, the 2026 World Cup features intriguing storylines. Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, two of the greatest players in history, may be playing in their final World Cup. This has spurred significant betting on Argentina and Portugal. Bickerdike personally favors Argentina, citing their balance of youth and experience. "Their balance is good, with a really nice mix of youth and experience, and that squad is really talented. Argentina would be my pick for the tournament, at the current prices," he said.
Dark horse contenders include Mexico, Egypt, and Iran. Mexico, playing the tournament's opening match in Mexico City, is -110 to win Group A. Bickerdike likes their chances, noting altitude advantage and a history of Round of 16 appearances. Egypt, led by Mo Salah, is a potential upset winner in Group G, where the aging Belgian squad is vulnerable. Iran also presents value as a group winner candidate.
One of the most bizarre betting trends involves Haiti, a +250000 long shot. "One of our biggest liabilities of the tournament is Haiti. They’re bizarrely popular with some of our customers," Bickerdike said. This illustrates how outlier bets can create unexpected risk, even for the longest shot in the field.
Implications for Sportsbooks and Bettors
For sportsbooks, the U.S. liability is manageable but worth monitoring. If the Americans exceed expectations and reach the quarterfinals or beyond, the payouts could be substantial. However, oddsmakers have priced Team USA accordingly, and the risk is offset by heavy action on favorites like France and Spain. Bettors looking for value might consider U.S. group-stage performance or knockout-round qualification, which offer better odds without the extreme risk of a championship bet.
As the tournament approaches, the betting landscape will evolve. Injuries, roster changes, and friendly match results can shift odds. For now, the story is clear: home-field advantage fuels passion, and that passion translates into betting liability. Whether Team USA can capitalize on that support remains to be seen, but one thing is certain—sportsbooks will be watching closely.
For more insights on World Cup betting, check out the full FOX Sports article by Patrick Everson. Also explore related coverage on World Cup odds and match schedules.
