NFL Week 17 Power Rankings and Rookie of the Year Analysis

The 2025 NFL regular season is approaching its dramatic conclusion, and Week 16 delivered the kind of seismic shifts that define championship races. Both the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos, previously holding the top seeds in their respective conferences, suffered losses that reshuffled the power structure. Meanwhile, standout performances from first-year players across the league have illuminated which rookies are making immediate impacts for their franchises. This analysis examines the updated NFL power rankings and identifies each team's most valuable rookie contributor as the playoff picture comes into focus.

Top Tier Contenders: The Elite Eight

The Seattle Seahawks (12-3) have surged to the top of the rankings following their thrilling 38-37 overtime victory against the Los Angeles Rams. Their rookie left guard, Grey Zabel, the 18th overall pick, has been a foundational piece, playing nearly 99% of offensive snaps and ranking first among all guards in run block win rate. The Los Angeles Rams (11-4), despite their loss, remain a formidable force. Rookie tight end Terrance Ferguson, a second-round selection, has carved out a significant role in their three-tight-end sets, earning praise from head coach Sean McVay for his rapid development.

The Denver Broncos (12-3) and New England Patriots (12-3) hold steady in the top four. Denver's offense has been buoyed by second-round running back RJ Harvey, whose 11 total touchdowns lead all rookie position players. In New England, running back TreVeyon Henderson has provided explosive playmaking, with four touchdown runs of 50+ yards, though a recent concussion casts uncertainty on his Week 17 availability. The Jacksonville Jaguars (12-3) and San Francisco 49ers (11-4) round out the upper echelon. Jacksonville's fourth-round pick, running back Bhayshul Tuten, has been a versatile contributor on offense and special teams, while 49ers nickelback Upton Stout has made crucial plays in key moments throughout the season.

Playoff Hopefuls and Rookie Standouts

The Buffalo Bills (11-4), Chicago Bears (11-4), and Los Angeles Chargers (11-4) are firmly in the postseason hunt, each bolstered by impactful rookies. Bills tight end Jackson Hawes, a fifth-round pick, has been instrumental as a blocker in their dominant rushing attack while emerging as a reliable target for Josh Allen. Chicago's offense has been transformed by the addition of tight end Colston Loveland, the 11th overall pick, who creates matchup nightmares and is a willing blocker for the league's second-ranked rushing offense. For the Chargers, wide receiver Tre' Harris has impressed coaches with his versatility and clutch playmaking.

The Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) and Green Bay Packers (9-5-1) feature defensive rookies making their mark. Eagles linebacker Jihaad Campbell, a first-rounder, has recorded 63 tackles and shown he can step up when needed. Packers first-round receiver Matthew Golden, while not yet meeting preseason expectations, has shown flashes of the talent that made him a high draft selection. The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) have seen their run defense transform with first-round defensive tackle Derrick Harmon in the lineup, allowing nearly 80 fewer rushing yards per game with him active.

The Middle of the Pack

Teams like the Houston Texans (10-5), Detroit Lions (8-7), and Indianapolis Colts (8-7) are fighting for playoff positioning with key rookie contributions. Texans left tackle Aireontae Ersery has protected C.J. Stroud's blind side after replacing the traded Laremy Tunsil. Lions receiver Isaac TeSlaa has been remarkably efficient, turning 12 receptions into five touchdowns. Colts tight end Tyler Warren has been a foundational piece of their offense, seeing 99 targets and demonstrating versatility at every level of the passing game.

The Carolina Panthers (8-7) have been revitalized by the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner, wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. The eighth overall pick leads all rookie receivers with 65 catches for 924 yards and 7 touchdowns, forming a potent connection with quarterback Bryce Young. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) and Baltimore Ravens (7-8) have also seen first-year players excel. Bucs receiver Emeka Egbuka posted a 910-yard season, while Ravens safety Malaki Starks, the 27th overall pick, has recorded over 70 tackles and multiple interceptions.

Building for the Future

Several teams with losing records have found bright spots in their rookie classes. The Atlanta Falcons (6-9) have a potential defensive cornerstone in edge rusher James Pearce Jr., whose 8.5 sacks are a franchise rookie record. The Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) saw promising development from left tackle Josh Simmons before his season-ending wrist injury; he allowed the third-lowest pressure rate among left tackles while active. The New Orleans Saints (5-10) have found renewed hope with quarterback Tyler Shough, who has led the team to a 4-3 record as the starter.

The Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite resides in Cleveland, where linebacker Carson Schwesinger (-1400 odds at DraftKings) has been phenomenal. The 33rd overall pick leads all rookies with 147 tackles and 11 tackles for loss while wearing the green dot as defensive signal-caller. The New York Jets (3-12) have their bookend tackle of the future in Armand Membou, the seventh overall pick who has been excellent in both pass and run blocking. For the Las Vegas Raiders (2-13), running back Ashton Jeanty, the sixth overall pick, showed his elite potential with a 188-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 16.

Conclusion: Rookie Impact and Playoff Implications

The final weeks of the 2025 NFL season will determine not only playoff seeding and championship contenders but also which rookies will secure the league's top honors. Tetairoa McMillan appears poised to claim Offensive Rookie of the Year, while Carson Schwesinger is the overwhelming favorite for the defensive award. The performances of these first-year players have significantly influenced their teams' fortunes, from Seattle's Grey Zabel fortifying their offensive line to Denver's RJ Harvey providing crucial scoring. As the regular season concludes, the foundation for future success is being laid by this impressive rookie class, whose immediate contributions are shaping both the present playoff race and their franchises' long-term trajectories.