Projecting the 2025 NFL Playoff Picture: A Simulation of the Final Three Weeks
Using ESPN's Football Power Index, we explore a detailed simulation of the final three weeks of the 2025 NFL season, projecting playoff seeding, division races, and Super Bowl LX matchups. This analysis reveals potential outcomes for key teams like the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams, and New England Patriots, highlighting dramatic shifts in conference standings and postseason implications as the regular season concludes.
As the 2025 NFL season enters its final three-week stretch, the playoff landscape remains fluid and fiercely contested. While the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams have already secured postseason berths, the battle for the remaining 12 spots, division titles, and crucial seeding advantages is far from decided. Using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to simulate the remainder of the season thousands of times provides a data-driven glimpse into the most probable outcomes. This article delves into one such simulation—No. 5,002—projecting the scores, final standings, and the complete playoff bracket through Super Bowl LX.
The Final Three Weeks: A Week-by-Week Breakdown
The simulation begins with Week 16, where immediate drama unfolds in the NFC. A last-second field goal by the Seattle Seahawks over the Los Angeles Rams throws the race for the conference's top seed wide open. Meanwhile, in the AFC, the Denver Broncos solidify their position by defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars in a clash of contenders, while the Buffalo Bills make a statement with a dominant win.
Week 17: The Seeding Shake-Up
Critical shifts occur in Week 17. The Broncos clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with a defensive masterclass against the Kansas City Chiefs. In the NFC, the Rams regain control of the top seed after the Seahawks suffer an unexpected loss. The race for the final playoff spots intensifies, setting up a decisive final week.
Week 18: Division and Playoff Clinchers
The regular season concludes with several winner-take-all scenarios. The Rams secure the NFC's No. 1 seed by defeating the Arizona Cardinals. The New England Patriots edge out the Buffalo Bills for the AFC East title via a tiebreaker. Most dramatically, the Pittsburgh Steelers defeat the Baltimore Ravens in a direct showdown to claim the AFC North, eliminating their rivals from playoff contention.
Projected Final Standings and Playoff Field
Based on the simulation's results, the playoff field and seeding for both conferences take shape with clear narratives emerging from the final stretch.
AFC Playoff Picture
The Denver Broncos finish with a league-best 15-2 record, riding a 14-game winning streak into the postseason as the No. 1 seed. The New England Patriots (13-4) claim the No. 2 seed by winning the AFC East. The Houston Texans (11-6) snatch the AFC South from the Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6), who settle for the No. 6 seed. The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) win the AFC North to secure the No. 4 seed, while the Buffalo Bills (13-4) enter as a dangerous No. 5 wild card. The Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) round out the field as the No. 7 seed. Notably, the Las Vegas Raiders (2-15) secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
NFC Playoff Picture
The Los Angeles Rams (13-4) clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed. The Chicago Bears (12-5) earn the No. 2 seed, while the Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) win the NFC East and South for the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds, respectively. The Seattle Seahawks (13-4) are a formidable No. 5 wild card, followed by the San Francisco 49ers (11-6) at No. 6. The Green Bay Packers (10-6-1) hold off the Detroit Lions (10-7) for the final No. 7 seed, with a Week 4 tie against the Dallas Cowboys proving decisive.
The Road to Super Bowl LX
The simulation projects a playoff bracket filled with upsets and dramatic storylines, culminating in a classic Super Bowl rematch.
Wild Card Round Surprises
The wild card round produces immediate shocks. In the AFC, the Pittsburgh Steelers dominate the Buffalo Bills, while the Jacksonville Jaguars upset the division-rival Houston Texans. In the NFC, the Green Bay Packers exact revenge on the Chicago Bears, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeat the Seattle Seahawks in a low-scoring affair.
Conference Championships
Both No. 1 seeds advance, but face different challenges. The Denver Broncos fall in a defensive struggle to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, with the Patriots winning 10-7. In the NFC, the Los Angeles Rams handle the surging Tampa Bay Buccaneers with relative ease, winning 34-17 to secure their spot in the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl LX: Rams vs. Patriots
The simulation sets up a Super Bowl LIII rematch between the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots. In a higher-scoring affair than their previous meeting, Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua delivers an MVP performance with 143 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams hold a late lead, and a critical fourth-down sack by edge rusher Jared Verse seals a 30-24 victory for Los Angeles, crowning them champions once again.
Conclusion: The Value of Predictive Analytics
This FPI simulation, while just one of thousands of possible outcomes, illustrates the volatility and excitement inherent in the final weeks of an NFL season. It highlights how a single game—like the Seahawks' Week 16 win or the Packers' early-season tie—can have cascading effects on playoff seeding and qualification. For teams and fans, these final weeks are a complex puzzle of scoreboard-watching, tiebreakers, and clutch performances. While the actual results may differ, tools like the Football Power Index provide a fascinating, data-backed narrative for how the thrilling conclusion to the 2025 NFL season might unfold, reminding us that in the NFL, every play matters until the final whistle.
