Analyzing NFL Week 14: Chiefs' Offensive Struggles and Jaguars' AFC South Rise

The NFL's Week 14 provided a pivotal snapshot of the league's evolving landscape, with several teams revealing their true identities as the playoff race intensifies. Two stories dominated the narrative: the Kansas City Chiefs' continued offensive struggles reaching a critical juncture and the Jacksonville Jaguars' quiet emergence as legitimate contenders in the AFC. According to ESPN analyst Ben Solak's comprehensive breakdown, these developments highlight fundamental issues that could define the postseason picture.

The Kansas City Chiefs' Offensive Crisis

The Chiefs' 2025 season has reached a concerning point, with their playoff streak in serious jeopardy after a particularly difficult loss in Week 14. According to ESPN's Football Power Index projections, Kansas City now has only a 16.4% chance to make the postseason, a stunning development for a franchise that has appeared in five of the last six Super Bowls. The underlying issues, however, have been developing for several seasons, masked by the team's remarkable ability to win close games in previous years.

Fundamental Offensive Limitations

Two critical problems have plagued the Chiefs' offense for multiple seasons, becoming increasingly apparent as their win-loss record has normalized. First, Kansas City lacks a legitimate, diversified running game. The team's offense has become overly reliant on shotgun formations and run-pass options (RPOs), with 62.4% of their running back carries coming from shotgun this season. This approach limits their schematic diversity and makes them predictable to opposing defenses.

The statistics reveal the extent of the problem: the 2025 Chiefs have the lowest explosive rush rate on running back carries among all seasons since 2000 at just 2.6%. They average only 3.6 yards per run from shotgun (30th in the league) and 1.7 yards before contact per rush (29th). This inability to establish a credible ground threat prevents the Chiefs from forcing defenses to respect the run, which in turn constricts their passing game.

Receiver Room Imbalance

The second major issue concerns Kansas City's wide receiver corps. Despite significant investment in the position through the draft and trades, the Chiefs have failed to build a balanced, complementary group. Their approach has focused heavily on speed-oriented, smaller receivers in an attempt to replace Tyreek Hill's field-stretching ability, but this has created a one-dimensional passing attack.

The Chiefs' receivers lack the physicality to consistently win against physical man coverage, as demonstrated in their Week 14 loss to the Houston Texans. Even their bigger receivers like Rashee Rice (6-foot-1, 204 pounds) and Jalen Royals (6-foot, 205 pounds) don't possess the size to consistently win contested catches against physical defensive backs. This has resulted in a passing game that ranks 18th in explosive play rate despite Patrick Mahomes leading the league in throws behind the line of scrimmage.

Pathways to Improvement

Solak identifies two potential routes for Kansas City's offensive revitalization. The first involves adopting a more traditional under-center running game similar to what the Buffalo Bills have implemented. Buffalo leads the league with 83.4% of their running back runs coming from under center this season, creating a more diverse and effective ground attack that complements their passing game without minimizing Josh Allen's impact.

The second approach focuses on acquiring more balanced receiver talent. The Chiefs could benefit from adding physical receivers who excel in the intermediate areas of the field and can win against man coverage. Players like Jauan Jennings or Jakobi Meyers (currently excelling in Jacksonville) would provide the consistency and physicality currently missing from Kansas City's receiver room. As Solak notes, "The passing game will immediately excel the moment a truly dangerous receiver enters the fold."

The Jacksonville Jaguars' Quiet Ascent

While much attention has focused on the Houston Texans' impressive five-game winning streak, the Jacksonville Jaguars have quietly positioned themselves as legitimate AFC contenders. Since their Week 8 bye, the Jaguars have compiled a 5-1 record, with their only loss coming in a dramatic collapse against those same Texans. During this six-game stretch, Jacksonville has developed into a balanced team with complementary offensive and defensive units.

Offensive Evolution Under Liam Coen

The Jaguars' offensive improvement has been particularly notable, ranking sixth in success rate, fifth in points per drive, and 13th in EPA per play since their bye week. Key to this transformation has been the midseason acquisition of wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, who has brought unprecedented consistency to the passing game. Since arriving in Week 10, 67.7% of Meyers' targets have resulted in successful plays for the offense, leading all wide receivers during that period.

Meyers' presence has allowed other receivers to settle into more natural roles. Brian Thomas Jr. has returned to his preferred field-stretcher position, averaging 25.5 air yards per target in his second game alongside Meyers. This role clarification has benefited quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has shown improved decisiveness and accuracy in the Jaguars' evolving system.

Defensive Versatility and Depth

Jacksonville's defensive improvement has been equally impressive but less discussed. The Jaguars have developed a formidable defensive line rotation that goes beyond stars Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. Since Week 10, they rank seventh in the league in pressure rate at 39.4% despite injuries to key players like Arik Armstead.

Defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile has effectively utilized simulated pressures, sending rushers from depth while dropping defensive linemen into coverage to manipulate protection rules. This creative approach, combined with the unit's ability to limit explosive plays (ranking third in explosive pass rate allowed since the bye), has created favorable third-down situations where their pressure packages can thrive.

Broader League Implications

The developments in Kansas City and Jacksonville reflect broader trends across the NFL. The Chiefs' struggles demonstrate that even the most successful franchises must continually evolve their offensive approaches to maintain competitiveness. Their reliance on a specific offensive philosophy that worked brilliantly during their championship runs now requires adjustment as defenses have adapted.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars' ascent highlights the importance of midseason adjustments and roster development. Jacksonville has effectively rebuilt their identity during the season, adjusting both their coaching approach and player utilization to maximize their strengths. Their upcoming matchup against the 11-2 Denver Broncos will serve as a critical test of their legitimacy as AFC contenders.

As the playoff picture continues to clarify, these Week 14 lessons provide valuable insights into which teams are positioned for postseason success. The Chiefs face a critical offseason of evaluation and adjustment, while the Jaguars have positioned themselves as a team capable of making noise in what appears to be a more open AFC field than in recent seasons.