NFL Coach of the Year Race: Can Kyle Shanahan Catch Mike Vrabel?

The NFL Coach of the Year award recognizes the sideline leader who has orchestrated the most impressive turnaround, managed adversity, or achieved remarkable success in a given season. As the 2025 campaign concluded, the betting odds have crystallized around a clear favorite, but a late surge from another elite coach has added intrigue to the race. The central question now is whether Kyle Shanahan's stellar work with the San Francisco 49ers can overcome the overwhelming favorite status of New England's Mike Vrabel.

The Betting Landscape: Vrabel as the Overwhelming Favorite

According to the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, Mike Vrabel stands as the commanding frontrunner. His odds have shortened dramatically to -400, meaning a bettor would need to wager $400 to win $100. This shift from -110 just a week prior indicates a massive influx of confidence from the betting market following the Patriots' strong finish. Vrabel's case is built on a remarkable in-season transformation. After a concerning 1-2 start, he guided the Patriots to a ten-game winning streak. Despite a Week 15 loss to the Buffalo Bills, the team rallied to win their final three games, including a key 28-24 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16.

Kyle Shanahan's Surging Candidacy

While not listed in the referenced odds, the prompt indicates Kyle Shanahan has "surged up the oddsboard," positioning him as Vrabel's primary challenger. Shanahan's case is typically built on consistent excellence and offensive innovation. Leading the 49ers to another dominant season and a high playoff seed, Shanahan's ability to maximize talent, particularly on offense, makes him a perennial contender for coaching honors. His surge in the odds suggests voters and bettors are recognizing the sustained quality of his work, potentially viewing him as the most credible threat to Vrabel's candidacy.

Other Notable Contenders

Behind the top two, other coaches have built strong cases. Mike Macdonald of the Seattle Seahawks sits at +450 odds. His work has been exceptional, leading the Seahawks to a 9-1 record after their bye week and securing the NFC's top seed. Under his guidance, the team set a franchise record with 14 regular-season wins, and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba blossomed into a star with 1,793 receiving yards. Liam Coen of the Jacksonville Jaguars, at +950, also merits mention for winning the AFC South with a 13-4 record and overseeing units that ranked 6th (special teams) and 11th (offense) in the league.

Factors That Will Decide the Award

The final vote will likely hinge on a few key criteria. Narrative plays a significant role; Vrabel's dramatic turnaround from a slow start provides a compelling story. The development of quarterback Drake Maye into an MVP candidate is a huge point in Vrabel's favor. For Shanahan, the argument is one of sustained, elite performance and schematic mastery. Voter fatigue could be a factor, as Shanahan is often in the conversation, while Vrabel's success in New England post-Bill Belichick feels fresh. Ultimately, the award often goes to the coach whose team most exceeds preseason expectations, which strongly benefits Vrabel's case.

Conclusion

Mike Vrabel enters the voting period as the definitive favorite for the 2025 NFL Coach of the Year award, backed by a powerful narrative of turnaround and development. However, Kyle Shanahan's late surge up the oddsboard underscores the respect for his consistent, top-tier coaching performance. While Vrabel's odds make him the man to beat, Shanahan represents the most formidable challenge. The final result will reveal whether the voters were more impressed by a season-defining resurgence or a continuation of elite excellence.