Read on Global NewsThe Next Phase of the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: International Forces and Transitional Governance
The Israel-Hamas conflict is poised to enter a critical second stage of its ceasefire agreement. This phase, expected to commence shortly, centers on two complex pillars: the deployment of an international security force to Gaza and the establishment of a temporary, internationally supervised Palestinian government to administer daily affairs. The transition hinges on the final exchange of remains and sets the stage for the contentious process of disarming Hamas and withdrawing Israeli troops. This article examines the structure, challenges, and geopolitical implications of this next step toward a fragile stability.
The protracted conflict between Israel and Hamas is approaching a pivotal juncture. Following the initial ceasefire and hostage exchanges, attention now turns to the implementation of a more complex and politically fraught second stage. As reported by The Associated Press, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Israel and Hamas are "very shortly expected to move into the second phase of the ceasefire." This next chapter is not merely a continuation of the pause in hostilities but a structured attempt to address the underlying security and governance vacuum in Gaza, setting the stage for potential long-term arrangements.
Core Components of the Second Stage
The second phase, as outlined in the U.S.-drafted plan, is built on two interdependent foundations designed to stabilize Gaza and create conditions for a more permanent resolution.
1. Deployment of an International Security Force
A cornerstone of this stage is the planned deployment of an international force to secure Gaza. This force aims to fill the security void, prevent the rearmament of militant groups, and ensure stability during the transitional period. The concept draws from historical precedents of international peacekeeping but faces unique challenges in the densely populated and politically charged Gaza Strip. Germany has already committed to supporting this effort by sending officers and diplomats to a U.S.-led coordination center in southern Israel.
2. Formation of a Temporary Palestinian Government
Parallel to the security mission, the plan calls for forming a temporary Palestinian government to run Gaza's day-to-day affairs. This administration would operate under the supervision of an international board reportedly led by U.S. President Donald Trump. The goal is to restore basic civil administration, coordinate humanitarian aid, and begin reconstruction, all while operating within a framework that excludes Hamas from formal governance. This temporary structure is seen as a bridge, though its relationship with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank remains undefined.
Prerequisites and Immediate Challenges
Transitioning to this stage is contingent on completing the first phase of the agreement. The final hurdle is the return of the remains of Ran Gvili, a 24-year-old Israeli police officer killed in the October 2023 attack. Hamas has cited difficulties in retrieving remains buried under rubble, while Israel views this as stalling. As noted in the AP report, families of hostages have insisted that "we cannot advance to the next phase before Ran Gvili returns home." Once this exchange is complete, the more daunting tasks begin.
The Road Ahead: Disarmament and Withdrawal
Prime Minister Netanyahu has explicitly linked the second stage to "the disarming of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza." A senior Hamas official indicated a willingness to discuss "freezing or storing or laying down" its weapons, suggesting a potential, albeit difficult, pathway. Netanyahu has also framed a prospective third phase: the deradicalization of Gaza, citing historical examples in Germany and Japan. However, he maintains that "Hamas has to be dismantled" for any long-term success, a position that conflicts with Hamas's survival as an entity.
Geopolitical Context and Diverging Visions
The ceasefire process unfolds amid starkly different visions for the future. The U.S. plan leaves the door open to Palestinian independence, while Netanyahu has consistently opposed a sovereign Palestinian state, fearing it would become a Hamas stronghold. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, during his visit to Jerusalem, reiterated support for a two-state solution but emphasized that recognition of a Palestinian state must come at the end of a process, not the beginning. Furthermore, Netanyahu's concerns over an International Criminal Court arrest warrant have complicated diplomatic travel, underscoring the international legal pressures surrounding the conflict.
Conclusion: A Fragile Path Forward
The second stage of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire represents a critical attempt to move from a simple cessation of violence to a managed transition. The deployment of an international force and the creation of a supervised Palestinian government are ambitious mechanisms to address Gaza's immediate security and governance crises. However, their success hinges on overcoming profound mutual distrust, completing the fraught initial exchanges, and navigating the deeply contentious issues of disarmament and political horizon. The process remains fragile, with the potential for resumed hostilities if agreements falter. The coming weeks will test the commitment of both parties and the international community to building a more stable, if not yet permanent, reality for Gaza.
