College Football Playoff Picture: Notre Dame's Path and Conference Breakdown After Week 9
With just one month remaining in the regular season, the College Football Playoff landscape is taking shape across all conferences. Notre Dame sits on the cusp at No. 12 in current projections but needs to run the table to secure a playoff spot. The SEC leads with over 95% chance to send at least four teams, while the Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 feature multiple bubble teams vying for at-large bids. This analysis breaks down each conference's playoff contenders and examines the critical matchups that will determine the final 12-team field.
As the college football season enters its final month, the playoff picture becomes clearer with each passing week. The first College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed on November 4, giving teams one last chance this Saturday to make their case to the selection committee. With the expanded 12-team format, more programs remain in contention than ever before, creating a complex landscape of conference dynamics and bubble scenarios.
Notre Dame's Critical Position
Notre Dame finds itself in a precarious position at No. 12 in current projections, sitting exactly on the playoff bubble. According to ESPN analysis, the Irish need to run the table and look like a playoff team to secure their spot. Their path begins this Saturday at unranked Boston College, followed by challenging matchups against Navy and other opponents. ESPN Analytics gives Notre Dame the best chance in the country to win out at 67.1%, but any slip-up could prove fatal to their playoff hopes.
Conference-by-Conference Breakdown
SEC Dominance
The SEC continues to lead the playoff race with more than a 95% chance to send at least four teams to the expanded field. Current projections show Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt in the "would be in" category. Texas remains the conference's spotlight team, needing to run the table despite two losses. The Longhorns face no margin for error but could build an impressive résumé with wins against Vanderbilt and Georgia if they can complete the season undefeated from this point forward.
Big Ten Contenders
The Big Ten features three teams currently projected in the playoff field: Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. USC represents the conference's bubble team, with both losses coming on the road to respectable opponents. The Trojans face a critical test November 22 at Oregon that could make or break their playoff chances. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, if USC runs the table, they would have an 82.9% chance to reach the playoff.
ACC Bubble Watch
The ACC presents an interesting case with Georgia Tech and Miami currently projected in the field, while Virginia sits on the cusp. The Cavaliers have won three overtime games in their past four outings, positioning themselves for a potential playoff push. Louisville remains in the "work to do" category, haunted by their three-point overtime loss to Virginia but still maintaining a 12.5% chance to reach the playoff according to ESPN Analytics.
Big 12 Landscape
BYU stands as the Big 12's lone projected playoff team, with Texas Tech sitting on the cusp as the first team out. The November 8 matchup between Texas Tech and BYU could determine the conference's playoff representation. Cincinnati represents the conference's enigma, undefeated in conference play but facing challenging road tests that will determine their playoff validity.
Group of 5 Representation
Memphis currently projects as the Group of 5 representative, earning the edge due to their head-to-head win against South Florida. The American Athletic Conference maintains the best chance among Group of 5 leagues to send its champion to the playoff. Navy remains undefeated but faces the country's most difficult remaining schedule, including critical matchups against North Texas, Notre Dame, and Memphis that will determine their playoff fate.
Current Projected Bracket
Based on current standings, the playoff seeding would feature first-round byes for Ohio State, Indiana, Alabama, and Texas A&M. First-round matchups would include Memphis at Georgia, Georgia Tech at Ole Miss, BYU at Miami, and Vanderbilt at Oregon. The quarterfinals would take place at the Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl on December 31 and January 1.
Looking Ahead
The final month of the regular season promises dramatic shifts in the playoff picture. Key matchups like Texas Tech vs. BYU, USC at Oregon, and Navy's challenging November schedule will determine which teams ultimately secure the coveted 12 spots. Notre Dame's path remains clear but demanding: win out and hope other results fall favorably to avoid being squeezed out by conference champions from the Group of 5.
As selection committee chairman Boo Corrigan emphasized in previous seasons, the group will evaluate complete body of work, conference championships, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, and other relevant factors. With multiple teams across all conferences still controlling their playoff destiny, the coming weeks will separate the true contenders from the hopefuls in this expanded playoff era.
