NFL Week 17 Betting Preview: Texans-Chargers and Ravens-Packers Odds, Picks, and DFS Strategy

As the NFL regular season reaches its thrilling climax, Week 17 delivers a pivotal Saturday doubleheader with profound playoff consequences. The Houston Texans travel to face the Los Angeles Chargers in a game that could secure Houston's postseason ticket, while the Baltimore Ravens head to Lambeau Field for a desperate clash with the Green Bay Packers. Both contests are laden with betting intrigue, strategic DFS angles, and player prop opportunities that demand careful analysis.

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers: Game Preview and Betting Angles

The first game of Saturday's slate pits two of the league's hottest teams against each other. The Houston Texans have engineered a remarkable seven-game winning streak, positioning themselves just one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South. Their recent victory over the Las Vegas Raiders was a narrow affair, highlighting the pressure of the playoff chase. Conversely, the Los Angeles Chargers have secured their playoff berth and are riding a four-game win streak of their own, sitting one game behind the Denver Broncos in the AFC West. Their dominant Week 16 performance against the Dallas Cowboys showcased their potential, and they enter this contest as 1.5-point favorites at home, according to ESPN's betting preview.

Expert Game Pick and Analysis

ESPN analyst Pamela Maldonado advocates for the Chargers' moneyline. Her rationale centers on the Chargers' defensive scheme being particularly well-suited to challenge Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, especially given Houston's documented dip in offensive efficiency on the road. Furthermore, she highlights Justin Herbert's superior ability to handle pressure and engineer critical late-game drives. In a contest expected to be decided by field position and execution, the home team's advantages are compelling.

Key Player Props and Bets

Several player props offer value in this matchup. Analyst Matt Bowen identifies Justin Herbert's rushing yardage over 23.5 yards as a strong play. Herbert has demonstrated his mobility, rushing for 42 or more yards in two of his past four games. The Texans' aggressive pass rush is likely to force him out of the pocket, creating second-reaction running opportunities.

Liz Loza points to Herbert throwing over 0.5 interceptions. Despite a spectacular performance against Dallas, Herbert had thrown an interception in four consecutive games prior, totaling 12 on the season. This trend aligns with a Houston defense that has recorded 17 interceptions, tied for third-most in the NFL.

For the Chargers' backfield, Eric Moody recommends Omarion Hampton over 62.5 rushing yards. Since returning from an ankle injury, Hampton has averaged 67.3 rushing yards over his last three games and could see an expanded role if starter Kimani Vidal is limited. The Texans' run defense, while stout, allowed 128 yards to Ashton Jeanty in Week 16.

Daily Fantasy Tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown

For the single-game DFS slate, consensus builds around Texans wide receiver Nico Collins as a top Captain option. Both Bowen and Loza highlight his ability to exploit the Chargers' zone coverages with intermediate routes, coming off a game where he was underutilized. Loza also suggests the Texans D/ST as a value play, citing Herbert's struggles prior to Week 16.

Maldonado prefers Herbert as her Captain, banking on his volume and rushing equity. Ben Solak targets Omarion Hampton for the Captain slot if Vidal is out, projecting a 20-plus touch day, and identifies rookie receiver Tre' Harris as a deep-value flex option due to his increasing offensive involvement.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers: A Must-Win Scenario

The nightcap features a Baltimore Ravens team fighting for its playoff life against a Green Bay Packers squad that, despite a devastating loss to Chicago, clinched a postseason spot thanks to Detroit's Thursday night defeat. The Ravens' path is clear: a win is mandatory to stay alive in the AFC North and hope for a Week 18 showdown with Pittsburgh. Significant quarterback uncertainty clouds this game, with Lamar Jackson listed as doubtful for Baltimore and Jordan Love ruled out for Green Bay. The Packers are installed as 4.5-point favorites.

Expert Game Pick and Analysis

The prevailing wisdom points to a low-scoring affair. Maldonado strongly recommends the under 40.5 points. Both defenses rank in the top five in points allowed per drive, and neither offense currently profiles as explosive. With potential backup quarterbacks seeing action and both teams likely to employ run-heavy, conservative game scripts to protect leads or manage deficits, long possessions and field goals are expected to define the tempo.

Key Player Props and Bets

Derrick Henry's rushing prop is a major point of focus. Eric Moody advocates for Henry over 72.5 yards, noting he has surpassed 90 yards in three straight games. The matchup is favorable, as the Packers' defensive front has ranked 27th in run-stop win rate since Week 12. A strong performance would also move Henry into the top 10 on the NFL's all-time rushing list.

For the Packers, Liz Loza suggests Josh Jacobs under 14.5 rushing attempts. Jacobs has gone under this number in two straight games, and with the Packers having secured a playoff berth, they may look to manage his workload, giving more carries to backup Emanuel Wilson.

Daily Fantasy Tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown

Derrick Henry is the consensus safe Captain play for the Ravens-Packers slate, with analysts Bowen and Loza citing his guaranteed volume and touchdown equity in a game where Baltimore will lean heavily on the run. Bowen also suggests Ravens kicker Brandon McManus as a contrarian play, anticipating a field-goal-heavy contest.

With Jordan Love out, Ben Solak identifies Packers backup Malik Willis as a high-upside Captain option due to his elite rushing ability at the quarterback position. For value, both Solak and Loza point to Ravens backup running back Keaton Mitchell, who has seen an increased role and possesses game-breaking speed that can pay off with limited touches.

Critical Betting Trends to Consider

Several trends highlighted by ESPN Research could influence betting decisions. For the early game, the Chargers have covered four straight games overall and four straight at home. The Texans are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past five. Notably, unders are 32-17 in Texans games under head coach DeMeco Ryans, the highest such rate in the league since 2023.

For the late game, trends are less favorable for the participants: the Ravens are 0-3 ATS as underdogs this season and 1-6 ATS against teams with winning records. The Packers are 0-4 ATS following a loss this season. However, if Lamar Jackson plays, his historical performance as a road underdog (10-2 ATS) provides a compelling counter-narrative.

Conclusion and Final Recommendations

Week 17's Saturday slate offers a masterclass in high-stakes NFL football with intertwined playoff narratives. The Texans-Chargers game presents a clash of surging teams where the Chargers' defensive scheme and home-field advantage give them a slight edge, making the moneyline a prudent pick. The under on total points is the sharp play for Ravens-Packers, given the quarterback uncertainties and defensive strengths of both squads. For player props, Derrick Henry's rushing yardage over and Justin Herbert's interception prop offer solid value based on recent trends and matchup specifics. DFS players should build around volume-based anchors like Henry and Nico Collins while seeking value in secondary pieces like Keaton Mitchell and Tre' Harris. As always, monitoring official injury reports, especially regarding Lamar Jackson, up until kickoff is essential for finalizing any betting or fantasy strategy.