AFC and NFC Top Seed Races: Broncos, Patriots, Seahawks, and Rams Battle for Playoff Byes

The final stretch of the 2025 NFL regular season has delivered exactly what football fans crave: high-stakes drama with playoff seeding hanging in the balance. While 12 of the 14 playoff teams are essentially determined, the battle for the coveted top seeds and first-round byes in both the AFC and NFC is wide open. Week 16 saw significant shifts, with the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams—both previously holding the top spots—suffering critical losses. This has opened the door for the New England Patriots in the AFC and propelled the Seattle Seahawks to the front of the NFC. With two weeks remaining, the path to home-field advantage is fraught with challenges for all four primary contenders.

The AFC Race: Broncos and Patriots on a Collision Course

The AFC's top seed appeared to be Denver's to lose after an 11-game winning streak. However, their 34-20 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16 exposed vulnerabilities at the worst possible time. According to analysis from ESPN's Bill Barnwell, the defeat wasn't due to quarterback Bo Nix but rather a surprising breakdown by the Broncos' typically dominant defense. Trevor Lawrence posted an 87.4 Total QBR against them, the best mark by any quarterback facing Denver all season. The Jaguars successfully targeted cornerback Riley Moss and exploited communication issues in the secondary, a blueprint other playoff teams will surely study.

Denver Broncos: A Weakened Grip

Despite the loss, the Broncos (12-3) still narrowly hold the AFC's top spot. Their path, however, is complicated. They face the struggling Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day, but a Week 18 rematch with the Los Angeles Chargers could decide the AFC West title if the Chargers beat the Houston Texans next week. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) now gives Denver a 36.2% chance of finishing as the AFC's 1-seed. The concern for head coach Sean Payton is whether his defense can regain its suffocating form against elite competition, as the margin for error for the inconsistent Bo Nix has now shrunk considerably.

New England Patriots: Capitalizing on Opportunity

The New England Patriots (12-3) seized their chance, defeating the Baltimore Ravens 28-24. The victory was aided significantly by Lamar Jackson leaving the game in the second quarter with a back injury. While critics will point to the Patriots' historically easy strength of schedule—rated by Pro Football Reference as the 10th-easiest since the 1970 merger—the win positioned them perfectly. With games against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins to finish the season, New England is primed to claim the top seed if Denver stumbles. The FPI gives the Patriots a 39.9% chance, the highest in the AFC. However, injuries to key players like rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson (concussion) could test their depth at a critical juncture.

The NFC Race: Seahawks Stun Rams in Epic Comeback

The NFC landscape was utterly transformed on Thursday night of Week 16. The Los Angeles Rams, leading 30-14 with under 10 minutes to play, collapsed against the Seattle Seahawks, who forced overtime and won 38-37 on a gutsy 2-point conversion. This result flipped the NFC West and the conference's top seed in one fell swoop. The Rams' loss was so frustrating that head coach Sean McVay fired special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn immediately after the game, highlighting the unit's costly errors, including a missed 48-yard field goal by Harrison Mevis and a punt return touchdown allowed.

Seattle Seahawks: Rewriting the Narrative

The Seahawks' victory was a career-defining moment for quarterback Sam Darnold. After throwing four interceptions in a prior loss to the Rams, Darnold engineered the comeback, culminating in the game-winning drive in overtime. Perhaps more importantly, Seattle found a rushing attack, with Kenneth Walker III breaking a 55-yard touchdown run. As Barnwell notes, generating explosive runs could be key to taking pressure off Darnold in a potential playoff rematch. Seattle (12-3) now controls its destiny: win their final two games (vs. Carolina, at San Francisco) and they secure the NFC's 1-seed and a first-round bye, with the FPI giving them a 47.6% chance.

Los Angeles Rams: A Costly Collapse

For the Rams (11-4), the loss was a catastrophic blow to their Super Bowl aspirations. From controlling their own destiny for the top seed, they now need help. Even if they win their final two games against the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals, they require Seattle to lose once. Their odds of securing the 1-seed have plummeted to 20.1%. Injuries also played a role, with the absence of star receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) felt acutely in the red zone. The Rams' heavy reliance on 13 personnel (three tight ends) was effective in generating big plays but lacked efficiency when it mattered most in the fourth quarter.

Playoff Implications and the Final Stretch

The stakes for the top seed cannot be overstated. Earning a first-round bye provides a week of crucial rest for injured players and guarantees home-field advantage until the conference championship. For the Patriots and Seahawks, it would validate their seasons and provide the most direct path to the Super Bowl. For the Broncos and Rams, it represents a salvage operation for what were once seemingly secure positions.

The final two weeks will test each team's resilience. The Broncos must prove their loss was an aberration, not a trend. The Patriots must continue to handle business against inferior opponents while managing a growing injury report. The Seahawks must avoid a letdown and prove their running game is sustainable. The Rams must hope for a stumble ahead of them while fixing the special teams and defensive lapses that cost them dearly. In a season where the playoff field is largely set, the fight for the precious top spots ensures that the drama of the regular season will continue right up to Week 18.