Can the 2025 CFP First Round Match the Drama of 2024? A Preview of the Storylines

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff in 2024 delivered an unforgettable first round, defined by electric home atmospheres that propelled favorites to decisive victories. Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas, and Ohio State won by an average of 19.3 points, showcasing the power of hosting a playoff game. As the 2025 first round kicks off, the central question is whether this year's quartet of games can match that initial spectacle. While replicating the sheer dominance may be difficult, this year's matchups won't lack for compelling narratives, featuring revenge plots, chaotic contenders, and historic underdogs.

Setting the Stage: The 2024 Benchmark

Last year's first round established a new standard for playoff intensity. The home-field advantage proved monumental, with venues like Notre Dame Stadium and Beaver Stadium creating nearly insurmountable environments for visiting teams. The four home teams, favored by an average of 8.8 points, exceeded expectations with convincing wins. This success has shifted the focus for 2025 to whether the new host sites—Norman, College Station, Oxford, and Eugene—can generate similar energy and whether the games themselves can be more competitive. According to ESPN's preview, while close games are the sport's best advertisement, the sheer spectacle of the new playoff format is once again on display.

Game-by-Game Storyline Breakdown

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma: The Redemption Rematch

This Friday night showdown is a direct replay of a pivotal November clash, where Oklahoma's 23-21 win in Tuscaloosa dramatically altered the playoff landscape. Alabama gets a shot at redemption after a late-season fade, while Oklahoma aims to prove its earlier victory was no fluke. The Sooners' win was statistically improbable, with a Postgame Win Expectancy of just 5.0%, ranking as the fifth-least likely win of the entire 2025 season. The game turned on big defensive plays, including an 87-yard pick-six by Eli Bowen and a blocked field goal by Taylor Wein.

The key storyline revolves around Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson. After a brilliant mid-season stretch, his performance cratered in the final two games, with his completion rate dropping from 67% to 51% and his yards per dropback halving. He faces an aggressive Oklahoma defense ranked second nationally in success rate allowed. Conversely, Oklahoma's offense, ranked 95th in yards per play, must find a way to score without the defensive help that fueled their first victory. The Sooners' hope lies in explosive plays from receivers Isaiah Sategna III and Deion Burks and the reliable leg of kicker Tate Sandell.

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M: The Volatility Bowl

Perhaps the most unpredictable first-round game pairs two of the CFP's most volatile teams. Both Miami and Texas A&M are capable of explosive wins and baffling losses, making any outcome plausible. Miami's entire playoff résumé was built on a season-opening win over Notre Dame, secured by late heroics from kicker Carter Davis and defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. The Hurricanes have struggled in close games, often playing cautiously with late leads.

Texas A&M, meanwhile, authored two of the season's most dramatic wins: a last-second thriller at Notre Dame and a historic comeback from a 27-point halftime deficit against South Carolina. The Aggies are a perfect 4-0 in one-score games. The matchup hinges on which defense can force more mistakes from mistake-prone quarterbacks. A&M's defense, led by linebacker Daymion Sanford, is the nation's most aggressive, creating the highest rate of third-and-long situations but also allowing big plays. Miami's defense, featuring Bain and safety Jakobe Thomas, is more efficient and leads the nation in forced turnovers. The team that establishes its run game against stout defensive fronts may gain a decisive edge.

No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss: Seeking Respect

This matchup is a rematch of a Week 4 blowout where Ole Miss dominated Tulane 45-10. The Green Wave are out to prove they belong and that the first game was an aberration. In the September meeting, Tulane's transfer quarterback Jake Retzlaff, under constant pressure, completed just 5 of 17 passes, and the defense was torched by big plays from Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss. Since then, Tulane has won five straight, including the American Athletic Conference championship, by adapting its defensive scheme to limit big plays.

Ole Miss enters the playoffs amid a coaching transition, with Lane Kiffin having departed for LSU and defensive coordinator Pete Golding taking over as interim head coach. The Rebels have shown resilience, going 5-1 in one-score games behind a balanced offense led by Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy. The storyline is about validation: Can Tulane show its late-season form is real and compete with a Power 4 team? Or will Ole Miss, potentially galvanized by the coaching change, reaffirm its dominance and set up a quarterfinal rematch with Georgia?

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon: The Historic Underdog

James Madison's inclusion as the second Group of 5 team in the playoff has sparked debate, but the Dukes have earned their spot with a formidable defense ranked first in success rate allowed. Their challenge is monumental: facing an Oregon team that ranks fourth in SP+ and plays in the intimidating Autzen Stadium. JMU's path to an upset, a scenario Bill Connelly's analysis suggests happens once every seven or eight meetings, follows a specific script.

The Dukes must score touchdowns in the red zone, dominate third downs, hit a couple of explosive plays from running back Wayne Knight or receiver Landon Ellis, and win the turnover battle. Oregon, despite its elite status, has shown vulnerability on passing downs (ranking 65th in success rate) and lacks defensive disruption (98th in stuff rate). The Ducks' health at wide receiver, with Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. returning from injury, could be a factor. Beyond the result, this game is a test of Oregon's focus and a chance to evaluate its championship mettle against a disciplined, dangerous opponent.

Conclusion: A Different Kind of Drama

While the 2025 CFP first round may not produce the same one-sided, atmosphere-driven results as 2024, it offers a richer tapestry of competitive storylines. From revenge and redemption in Norman to volatility in College Station, respect in Oxford, and history in Eugene, each game carries a unique narrative weight. The playoff's second year may trade sheer dominance for tighter, more nuanced drama, proving the expanded format's ability to generate compelling matchups beyond the initial novelty. Whether the home crowds can replicate last year's impact remains to be seen, but the scripts for memorable football are certainly written.