NFL Week 15 Preview: Key Matchups, Fantasy Sleepers, and Predictions

As Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season unfolds, the playoff picture intensifies with every snap. Following the Atlanta Falcons' Thursday night comeback victory, the remaining slate of games presents critical matchups that could define postseason fortunes. This analysis, drawing on insights from ESPN's comprehensive guide, breaks down the pivotal trends, under-the-radar fantasy assets, and strategic battles that will shape the weekend's outcomes. From quarterback advantages to defensive mismatches, we provide the essential context for understanding the key narratives of Week 15.

Key Statistical Trends for Week 15

Analytics reveal specific vulnerabilities and strengths that could be decisive. For the Los Angeles Chargers, crossing routes appear to be the key to unlocking the Kansas City Chiefs' pass defense. While Kansas City ranks 14th in success rate allowed on dropbacks, their performance against crossing routes is notably weaker, ranking second-worst in EPA allowed per play. This presents a significant opportunity for Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey, who runs crossing routes on 16% of his plays and previously caught six passes for 74 yards against the Chiefs in Week 1.

The Indianapolis Colts face a daunting challenge against the Seattle Seahawks' top-ranked run defense. Seattle leads the league in EPA allowed per designed run and is uniquely effective against play-action, ranking first in EPA allowed on such plays. This creates a brutal matchup for the Colts, who may struggle to establish their preferred offensive identity, especially with quarterback uncertainty.

For the Baltimore Ravens, a tight end-centric passing attack (31% of targets) aligns perfectly with a Cincinnati Bengals defense that allows the highest percentage of targets to opposing tight ends (28%). In their previous meeting, Ravens tight ends combined for 159 receiving yards, suggesting Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews could be poised for another productive outing as Baltimore fights for a playoff berth.

Fantasy Football Sleepers and Streaming Options

With the fantasy playoffs underway, identifying available talent is crucial. Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (43.6% rostered) is trending upward, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in three straight games, and faces a New York Jets defense that has allowed the 10th-most points to quarterbacks. Houston Texans wide receiver Jayden Higgins (38.9% rostered) maintains a consistent target share and meets an Arizona Cardinals defense that has surrendered 35.4 fantasy points per game to wide receivers over its past five contests.

In Washington, running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. (31% rostered) leads a crowded backfield and faces a New York Giants defense ranked 29th in run stop win rate. With quarterback Jayden Daniels injured, Marcus Mariota (10.6% rostered) steps in for the Commanders; he has averaged 18.3 fantasy points per start this season and has the weapons to exploit a Giants defense allowing the fourth-most points to quarterbacks. As noted, Baltimore's Isaiah Likely (8.1% rostered) is a prime streaming tight end against a Bengals defense that has allowed the most fantasy points, receptions, and receiving yards to the position.

Potential Surprises and Key Matchups

Several games hold potential for unexpected outcomes. The Philadelphia Eagles' offense, which showed positive schematic adjustments in a loss to the Chargers, could rebound significantly against a softer Las Vegas Raiders defense. Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson, coming off 169 yards and three touchdowns over two games, could exploit matchups, particularly against man coverage where he averages 3.7 yards per route run, and challenge for the day's receiving lead.

The Cleveland Browns, boasting the league's top run defense in success rate, could stifle the Chicago Bears' ground game and force them into unfavorable passing situations. With cold weather and a potentially limited Rome Odunze, this sets the stage for a low-scoring, defensive battle where the Browns could secure an upset victory. A critical tactical matchup to watch features New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye against the Buffalo Bills' zone coverages. In their Week 5 meeting, Maye completed 15 of 18 passes for 174 yards against zone, suggesting offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels could design another effective game plan exploiting those defensive voids.

Betting Insight and Quarterback Situations

From a betting perspective, the Colts' team total under 14.5 points stands out. Indianapolis faces the Seattle Seahawks, who have the best EPA pass defense over the past two months and have allowed only nine total points in their last two games. With quarterback instability, reaching 15 points would require a significant break from script. Across the league, quarterback narratives are central. Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts is in a slump characterized by a high volume of turnovers, including five giveaways in his last game. His ability to protect the ball will be essential for the Eagles to reverse their three-game losing streak.

In Cleveland, Shedeur Sanders has shown consistent growth to earn the starting role, improving his footwork and pocket presence, though his time to throw remains high. For the Carolina Panthers, Bryce Young's challenge is to find the consistency that has eluded him, oscillating between elite performances and significant struggles, to keep playoff hopes alive. As Week 15 progresses, these individual battles and strategic adjustments will collectively determine which teams strengthen their postseason positioning and which see their hopes fade.