NFL Quarterback Carousel 2026: Which Teams Face Major QB Decisions

The NFL quarterback carousel never truly stops spinning, but the 2026 offseason promises particularly dramatic changes at the league's most important position. As we approach the midpoint of the 2025 season, several teams face critical decisions about their franchise quarterbacks that could reshape multiple organizations. From established veterans on massive contracts to young players failing to meet expectations, the quarterback landscape appears poised for significant turnover.

Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray's Uncertain Future

The Cardinals' situation with Kyler Murray has evolved from settled to highly uncertain in a remarkably short timeframe. Murray's performance declined significantly in 2025, with career-worst numbers including a 9.0% sack rate and just 6.0 yards per attempt. When Murray suffered a foot injury in Week 5, backup Jacoby Brissett took over and the Cardinals' offense showed immediate improvement, jumping from 25th to 12th in points scored per drive.

What makes Murray's situation particularly telling is how the Cardinals have handled his injury. The organization waited four weeks before placing him on injured reserve, which carries a four-week minimum absence. This timing allowed Brissett to start four additional games without the team needing to make a public decision about Murray's status. From a contractual perspective, Murray's situation presents challenges similar to Russell Wilson's in Denver. The Cardinals would face significant dead money if they release him, but a trade might be possible if another team is willing to take on his contract.

Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa's Declining Performance

Tua Tagovailoa's situation in Miami represents one of the most complex quarterback dilemmas facing any NFL team. The Dolphins quarterback has seen his Total QBR decline in three consecutive seasons, dropping from 70.6 in 2022 to 44.3 through the 2025 season. Despite this regression, Tagovailoa's contract makes him difficult to move. The Dolphins guaranteed him $54 million for 2026, meaning they would still be responsible for that money even if they release him.

A trade represents the most logical path for Miami if they decide to move on, but finding suitors willing to pay Tagovailoa $55 million next season could prove challenging. The Dolphins might need to absorb some of that financial burden to facilitate a deal. At his best, Tagovailoa excelled as a distributor in Mike McDaniel's quick-passing offense, but questions persist about whether the system and talented receivers drove Miami's offensive success more than the quarterback himself.

Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young's Critical Evaluation

The Panthers face a franchise-defining decision with Bryce Young as they approach the end of his third season. Young has shown minimal improvement in 2025, averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt—the worst mark in the league among full-season starters. His interception rate has increased for the second straight year, and he has managed only seven deep completions all season.

Carolina's decision on Young's fifth-year option, valued at approximately $25.6 million for 2027, looms large. If the Panthers decline the option, Young's future likely lies elsewhere. If they exercise it, he would almost certainly remain as either the starter or primary competition for the job in 2026. The situation is complicated by the fact that the coach and general manager who traded up to select Young first overall are no longer with the organization.

Other Notable Quarterback Situations

Several other quarterbacks face uncertain futures heading into the 2026 offseason. Geno Smith's performance has declined each season since his breakout 2022 campaign with Seattle, and the Raiders might prefer to move on from the 35-year-old despite owing him $18.5 million guaranteed for next season. Justin Fields has shown flashes with the Jets but hasn't demonstrated the consistency needed to secure the long-term starting job.

Veteran stars Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers continue to flirt with retirement decisions annually. Stafford has played at an MVP level for the Rams but has $40 million in non-guaranteed money for 2026, while Rodgers' one-year deal with Pittsburgh expires after this season. Younger quarterbacks like J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota and Michael Penix Jr. in Atlanta face evaluation periods that could lead their teams to bring in competition for the starting jobs.

Conclusion: Preparing for Quarterback Movement

The 2026 quarterback carousel promises significant movement as teams weigh performance against financial commitments and long-term planning. Organizations like Arizona, Miami, and Carolina face particularly difficult decisions with high draft capital invested in quarterbacks who haven't met expectations. The availability of multiple first-round quarterback prospects in the 2026 draft could accelerate these decisions, as teams without clear franchise answers might prefer to reset with a rookie contract rather than continue investing in underperforming veterans.

As the season progresses, these quarterback situations will continue to evolve, but the groundwork for an active offseason at the position has already been laid. Teams must balance financial realities with competitive aspirations while navigating one of the most important decisions any NFL franchise can make.